inkbluesky

devil’s elbow lighthouse 1280x 

Western analysts are forever bleating about the strategic importance of the middle east. But despite its oil, this backward region is less relevant than ever, and it would be better for everyone if the rest of the world learned to ignore it.

The first mistake is “five minutes to midnight” catastrophism. The late King Hussein of Jordan was the undisputed master of this genre. Wearing his gravest aspect, he would warn us that with patience finally exhausted the Arab-Israeli conflict was about to explode, that all past conflicts would be dwarfed by what was about to happen unless, unless…

…Strategically, the Arab-Israeli conflict has been almost irrelevant since the end of the cold war. And as for the impact of the conflict on oil prices, it was powerful in 1973 when the Saudis declared embargoes and cut production, but that was the first and last time that the “oil weapon” was wielded. For decades now, the largest Arab oil producers have publicly foresworn any linkage between politics and pricing, and an embargo would be a disaster for their oil-revenue dependent economies.

…Exactly the same mistake keeps being made by the fraternity of middle east experts. They persistently attribute real military strength to backward societies whose populations can sustain excellent insurgencies but not modern military forces.

Just some snips from Mr. Luttwak’s highly recommended dose of sanity. I came away thinking that if I had a few of those mythical wishes from a genie’s bottle that I’d use one to let him run both the U.S. and British State Departments for a few years. Sometimes, and admittedly it takes courage and resolve, the best way to handle a pernicious problem is to mostly ignore it.

Talk about a genuine problem, a hands down sociopath, few in history can match Joseph Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili (Joseph Stalin) -  Fine young criminal 

The great Tiflis heist, the ambush of a coach full of money in the main square, became a scandal reported all round the world. Attacking with bombs and guns, Stalin’s gang produced 90 casualties, 40 of which resulted in death. It was a huge embarrassment for the Bolsheviks, but Lenin, who was just as unscrupulous as his Georgian acolyte, did not want the money to dry up. Stalin’s insanely violent henchman, Kamo, left for Finland with the equivalent of £1.7 million, which he handed over to the cause. The Mensheviks, who received none of the money, set out to destroy both Lenin and Stalin. Lenin truly admired Stalin’s ruthlessness. “That is exactly the sort of person I need,” he said.

It was almost as though he was born to be a thug joining in with a street gang or band of terrorists/thieves when he was young. The village where he grew up was known for it’s street violence, but and this is something of a paradox, he was somewhat well read and liked to write poetry on occasion.